Malaysian General Elections

Malaysia will hold its 13th General Election shortly.  It must be held no later than 27 June 2013, but could be as early as next month (given Najib’s love for No. 11).  So who will win?Some experts have predicted a regime change ~ the first in Malaysia’s 55-year history.  Tun Mahathir is concerned, saying its better to vote in “the Devil you know, rather than the Angel that you don’t know”.

Wonder if Kalarhythms is useful in predicting the outcome of the next election.  Kalarhythm?  For those who are not familiar, researchers have indicated that there are repetitive economic and socio-political cycles for each country.  These time cycles are called kalarhytms.  So what does the rhythm for Malaysia indicate?

Let’s first check the past rhytms and the performance of the ruling coalition in the last 12 elections.

  • GE-1 (1959) – All 3 cycles trending up, a lot of hope, National Alliance won with two-third majority.
  • GE-2 (1964) – All 3 cycles almost at peak, strong economy, high confidence. Landslide victory for National Alliance (86% of seats).
  • GE-3 (1969) – All 3 cycles trending down, physical cycle will cross-over in 1970/71.  National Alliance (Barisan Nasional) receives only 49% of voles, loses two-third majority, racial riots in major cities.  New Economic Poliicy introduced in 1970.
  • GE-4 (1974) – Emotional cycle will cross-over  in 1975, fear factor.  Landslide victory for Barisan (88% seats).
  • GE-5 (1978) – Physical cycle bottomed, higher confidence in economic performance.  Barisan retains two-third majority, marginal losses to Opposition.
  • GE-6 (1982) – Physical cycle trending up.  Confidence in Economic outlook.  Barisan retains two-thirds (86% seats).
  • GE-7 (1986) – Physical cycle crossed-over in 1985, three year recession period (1985-1987),  Barisan retains two-thirds majority.  In 1988, Emotional cycle rising from its bottom.  Internal strifes in ruling party, UMNO deregistered, Badawi joins Semangat 46.
  • GE-8 (1990) – Physical cylce peaking, strong confidence in economy.  Mahathir-led Barisan retains two-third majority despite split (71% seats). In 1993, Emotional cycle cross-over, strong support for Mahathir.
  • GE-9 (1995) – Landslide victory for Barisan (84% seats).  In 1998, imminent negative cross-over of Physical cycle ~ Asian Financial cycle, Anwar sacked, sentenced to 6-year jail for corruption.

  • GE-10 (1999) – Opposition picks up more seats, but Barisan retains two-thirds majority (77% seats) .
  • GE-11 (2004) – Landside vitory for Badawi-led Barisan, it retains two-thirds majority with record seats (90%).  Intellectual cycle peaking, Anwar pardoned by King and released from jail.
  • GE-12 (2008) – Physical cycle at its low, economic crisis.  Barisan gets 63% seats, loses two-thirds majority, with its worst results since 1969 ~ many ruling ministers lose their seats, several states won by Opposition, Badawi resigns.

The negative cross-over of the Emotional cycle in 2011 coincided with BERSIH-2 street rally, and BERSIH-3 riots.  The Physical cycle is recovering from its low (economy slow), whilst the Intellectual cycle is peaking.  So what is your view?